IPOs before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether three specific private companies, SHEIN, Anthropic, and Discord, will each go public on a stock exchange before the end of 2026. An IPO, or Initial Public Offering, is when a private company sells shares to the general public for the first time, allowing anyone to buy a piece of it on the stock market. A 'Yes' means the company made that leap. A 'No' means it stayed private, got acquired in a way that ended its independence, or simply ran out of time. Each company resolves 'Yes' the moment it completes an IPO on any recognized stock exchange by December 31, 2026, confirmed by credible news reporting. If a company is bought out or absorbed into another company before going public, it resolves 'No'. There is a nuance worth knowing: a merger only triggers a 'No' if the company loses its ability to independently pursue an IPO. If it continues as a parent or successor entity, that alone does not count as a 'No'. The deadline is firm: 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. None of the provided news headlines relate to SHEIN, Anthropic, or Discord, or to IPO activity in general. They cover unrelated political, financial, and geopolitical topics from other regions. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be official IPO filings, exchange listing announcements, or credible reporting that any of these companies has hired investment banks to lead a public offering. Each company carries its own uncertainty. SHEIN at 86% faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny in multiple markets, and its IPO plans have shifted before. Anthropic at 70% is in a fast-moving AI sector where investor appetite is high, but it has major backers who may prefer it stays private longer. Discord at 33% reflects genuine doubt: the company has explored and then stepped back from IPO plans in the past. Broader market conditions, interest rates, and investor sentiment can also shift the timing for all three.

The odds right now

• SHEIN+25.3 pts (1w)87%
• Anthropic-15.0 pts (1w)62%
• Discord-11.3 pts (1w)32%
• OpenAI+1.0 pts (1w)21%
• WHOOP-1.5 pts (1w)18%
• Remote-2.0 pts (1w)17%
• Applied Intuition+0.4 pts (1w)15%
• Mistral AI+1.0 pts (1w)14%
• Rippling+1.5 pts (1w)14%
• Celonis+2.5 pts (1w)12%
• Freddie Mac+4.0 pts (1w)11%
• Vanta-2.0 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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