James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how well James Fishback will do in the August 2026 Florida Republican primary race for governor, specifically what percentage of votes he will receive. A 'Yes' for the under-10% bracket means he gets a small slice of the vote and finishes as a minor candidate. The higher brackets (10-15% or 15-20%) would mean he gains real traction. This is not about who wins the primary overall, just about Fishback's personal vote share. The market settles based on Fishback's official vote percentage from the Florida Department of State after the August 18, 2026 primary. Whichever vote-share bracket matches his result is the one that resolves as correct. One notable rule: if a result falls exactly on a bracket boundary, it counts toward the higher bracket. Another: if results are not confirmed by November 30, 2026, the market automatically settles to the lowest bracket, which is under 10%. None of the recent news provided relates to James Fishback, the Florida governor's race, or Florida politics at all. The headlines are about mining companies, finance, and unrelated international events. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes Fishback announcing a campaign, polling data from Florida, or other major candidates entering or leaving the race. The biggest uncertainty is simply how well-known Fishback is in Florida Republican politics and who else runs against him. Primary vote share is notoriously hard to predict: it depends on name recognition, campaign funding, endorsements, and how crowded the field gets. A strong field of competitors would shrink everyone's share. The market currently prices a 63% chance he finishes under 10%, suggesting most participants see him as a long-shot candidate, but primaries can shift quickly with the right momentum.

The odds right now

• Fishback <10%+2.5 pts (1w)63%
• Fishback 15–20%+7.5 pts (1w)16%
• Fishback 10–15%-7.5 pts (1w)12%
• Fishback 30%++2.8 pts (1w)5%
• Fishback 20–25%-8.9 pts (1w)4%
• Fishback 25–30%-0.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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