Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which Republican candidate will win the primary election that decides who the GOP nominates for Kansas Governor in 2026. A win for Ty Masterson means he becomes the Republican candidate heading into the general election. A win for Philip Sarnecki means he does instead. This is not the final governor's race, just the internal Republican contest to pick their candidate, scheduled for August 4, 2026. The market settles based on whoever wins the most votes in the Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary on August 4, 2026. If there is a runoff required, the final runoff winner decides it. The official Kansas Republican Party announcement is the primary source, though a clear consensus from credible news outlets can also be used to call it. If the primary does not happen at all for any reason, the market resolves to 'Other,' which is a rare but real edge case worth knowing. None of the provided recent news directly relates to the Kansas Republican governor's primary. The headlines cover Arizona's primary, Michigan, and unrelated topics. There is no recent Kansas-specific news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter to watch for is any candidate endorsement, polling, or notable campaign event in Kansas in the weeks before August 4. The market prices Masterson as the strong favorite at around 83%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected shifts the race before August 4. Primary elections can be volatile: late endorsements, local news stories, or low turnout can produce surprises. Sarnecki sits at 15%, which means the market does not see this as a coin toss, but primaries in particular have a history of defying expectations. The race is still weeks away, which leaves time for things to change.

The odds right now

• Ty Masterson-3.0 pts (1w)83%
• Philip Sarnecki+2.3 pts (1w)15%
• Scott Schwab+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Vicki Schmidt-1.9 pts (1w)0%
• Jeff Colyer0%
• Joy Eakins0%
• Charlotte O’Hara0%
• Stacy Rogers0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.