Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable Unit's upcoming crypto token will be, very shortly after it goes live. FDV, or Fully Diluted Valuation, is essentially the total market size of the token: take every token that will ever exist, multiply by the price, and that is the FDV. So this is really asking: on its first full day of trading, will Unit's token be worth more than $200 million, $800 million, or $1 billion in total? Each threshold is a separate Yes or No question. Each version of this market settles based on Unit's token price at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after the token launches, meaning the first day it is publicly buyable and sellable by anyone. The price used will be from the most liquid trading source available at that moment, multiplied by the total token supply. If Unit never launches a token before midnight on December 31, 2027, all versions automatically settle as No, regardless of anything else. None of the recent news provided relates to Unit or its token launch. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is an official announcement from Unit about a launch date, a token sale, or details about total token supply, since those details directly determine the FDV calculation. Several real unknowns stack up here. Unit has not launched its token yet, so there is no price history to anchor expectations. Crypto tokens frequently open at extreme valuations that shift dramatically within hours, making even a one-day snapshot hard to forecast. The market prices the $200M threshold at 64%, the $1B threshold at 59%, and the $800M threshold at 50%, which is an unusual pattern suggesting genuine disagreement about the scale of the launch. There is also the basic risk that the token never launches before the 2027 deadline.

The odds right now

• $200M-0.5 pts (1w)59%
• $400M-0.5 pts (1w)49%
• $1B+19.5 pts (1w)49%
• $600M-11.5 pts (1w)46%
• $800M+2.5 pts (1w)43%
• $1.5B+17.5 pts (1w)42%
• $2B+1.0 pts (1w)21%
• $3B14%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Unit's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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