Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will physically set foot in each of three listed countries, Ireland, South Korea, and Germany, at any point during 2026. A Yes for a country means Trump actually travels there in person. A No means he doesn't visit at all, even if he flies over it or has phone calls with its leaders. Each country is tracked separately, so he could visit one but not the others. Each country resolves Yes the moment Trump physically enters its land or sea territory before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Airspace alone does not count, so a flight over Ireland without landing would not trigger a Yes. The market uses official U.S. government sources and Trump's verified accounts as primary evidence, but wide agreement among credible news outlets also counts. If no confirmed visit happens by the deadline, that country resolves No. The provided news doesn't include anything directly about Trump travel plans to Ireland, South Korea, or Germany. One headline notes a phone call between Trump and a prime minister on July 20, 2026, but phone calls don't count as visits under the rules. No confirmed trip announcements appear in the given headlines. The kind of news that would matter here is an official state visit announcement or confirmed travel itinerary. Presidential travel plans can change quickly. Diplomatic tensions, scheduling conflicts, or unexpected events can cancel or add visits with little warning. Ireland is priced highest at 73%, suggesting the market sees it as more likely than not, but not certain. South Korea and Germany sit closer to a coin toss. The full year still has months remaining as of this writing, which means a lot of time for plans to shift in either direction. Geopolitical developments could open or close doors fast.

The odds right now

• Ireland+15.0 pts (1w)72%
• South Korea+11.0 pts (1w)46%
• Germany-9.5 pts (1w)44%
• Japan+9.5 pts (1w)28%
• Israel+6.5 pts (1w)24%
• Saudi Arabia-9.5 pts (1w)20%
• Canada13%
• Ukraine-0.5 pts (1w)13%
• Italy-0.5 pts (1w)10%
• Portugal-9.0 pts (1w)9%
• Russia+0.5 pts (1w)9%
• India-0.5 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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