Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will reach a specific daily count at any point before July 31, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and it is one of the world's most important shipping lanes for oil and cargo. There are three separate thresholds: 30 or more ships in a single day, 40 or more, and 50 or more. A Yes means that peak daily traffic hits or clears that number at least once. A No means it never does. The market settles based on data published by IMF Portwatch, a shipping monitoring tool run by the International Monetary Fund, specifically tracking daily ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz. A day's count becomes official once the following day's data appears. If any single finalized daily count meets or exceeds the threshold before July 31, 2026, that tier resolves Yes immediately. If the count never reaches the threshold by the deadline, it resolves No. One important edge case: if data is delayed, the market can still close based on whatever figures are available within 14 days after the period ends. The news provided does not relate to the Strait of Hormuz or shipping traffic in any meaningful way. The headlines cover Indian political and energy topics. To track this market, the developments worth watching would be changes in regional tensions around the Persian Gulf, sanctions or naval activity affecting ship movements, and of course the daily IMF Portwatch data itself. The market is priced quite low across all three tiers, with even the most achievable threshold (30 ships) sitting at just 13%. This suggests participants currently see elevated traffic as unlikely, possibly reflecting ongoing regional tensions or disruptions that have kept ship counts depressed. The main uncertainty is whether anything changes between now and July 31: a diplomatic shift, a ceasefire, or a sudden surge in oil demand could push daily counts higher, while continued instability would keep them low. The outcome depends heavily on geopolitical conditions that are genuinely difficult to forecast.

The odds right now

• 30+-78.8 pts (1w)15%
• 40+-27.0 pts (1w)10%
• 50+-12.0 pts (1w)5%
• 60+-5.9 pts (1w)3%
• 80+-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• 100+-0.8 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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