← Markets
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 21?

Highest temperature in Chicago on July 21?

Resolves Jul 21, 2026·$10.3k 24h vol·weather
$10.3k total volume

84-85°F

44%+14.5%

New here?

Understand this market

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Chicago? Specifically, it wants to know which two-degree temperature band the afternoon peak will fall into. The options cover a range roughly from the low 80s to the upper 80s Fahrenheit, which is a normal warm summer day in Chicago. A 'Yes' on any option just means the thermometer topped out inside that particular range before midnight on that day.

OutcomeYesNo
84-85°F
82-83°F
86-87°F
80-81°F
88-89°F
79°F or below
92-93°F
90-91°F
94-95°F
96-97°F

Order Book

84-85°F

PriceSharesTotal
52.0¢45$23
51.0¢5$3
50.0¢68$34
49.0¢60$29
48.0¢6$3
47.0¢657$309
46.0¢820$377
45.0¢79$35
44.0¢last trade
2.0¢ spread
43.0¢1.5k$656
42.0¢1.8k$776
41.0¢150$61
40.0¢100$40
34.0¢10$3
33.0¢34$11
32.0¢5$2
31.0¢35$11
$1.6k bids$814 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Read the full market guide →

84-85°F

44%