Highest temperature in Chicago on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Chicago? Specifically, it wants to know which two-degree temperature band the afternoon peak will fall into. The options cover a range roughly from the low 80s to the upper 80s Fahrenheit, which is a normal warm summer day in Chicago. A 'Yes' on any option just means the thermometer topped out inside that particular range before midnight on that day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Chicago O'Hare Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. Whoever runs this market checks that page after the first reading of July 22 appears, locking in the final number. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so 84.9°F counts as 84°F, not 85°F. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that first July 22 reading are included; corrections after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about political news from Bangladesh and has no connection to Chicago weather. To follow this market, the useful things to watch for would be extended forecasts for the Chicago area in mid-to-late July 2026, and any signals about heat waves or cool fronts moving through the Midwest around that date. Weather forecasting more than a day or two out is genuinely difficult, and this market sits about a year away, which means current odds are based almost entirely on historical patterns, not actual forecasts. Late July in Chicago typically peaks in the low-to-mid 80s, which is why the 84-85°F band leads at 44%. But a passing storm system, a heat dome, or a cool front could easily shift the reading by five degrees or more. The further out the date, the more a single unexpected weather event can change everything.

The odds right now

• 84-85°F46%
• 82-83°F34%
• 86-87°F16%
• 80-81°F4%
• 79°F or below2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 96-97°F0%
• 98°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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