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Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?

Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?

Resolves Jul 22, 2026·$12.1k 24h vol·weather
$12.1k total volume

40°C

43%+2.5%

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Understand this market

This market is asking: how hot will Madrid get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Madrid's main airport weather station. The three options are 38°C (about 100°F), 39°C (about 102°F), or 40°C (about 104°F). Whichever temperature range the actual peak reading falls into wins. This is a straightforward question about one number from one thermometer on one day.

OutcomeYesNo
40°C
39°C
41°C
38°C
37°C
42°C
35°C
36°C
43°C
34°C or below

Order Book

40°C

PriceSharesTotal
53.0¢20$11
52.0¢5$3
51.0¢145$74
47.0¢45$21
46.0¢218$100
45.0¢520$234
44.0¢411$181
43.0¢143$62
45.0¢last trade
1.0¢ spread
42.0¢5$2
41.0¢1.5k$619
40.0¢681$272
39.0¢660$257
38.0¢153$58
35.0¢22$8
33.0¢10$3
32.0¢28$9
$1.2k bids$685 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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40°C

43%