Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Madrid get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Madrid's main airport weather station. The three options are 38°C (about 100°F), 39°C (about 102°F), or 40°C (about 104°F). Whichever temperature range the actual peak reading falls into wins. This is a straightforward question about one number from one thermometer on one day. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged by the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport weather station on July 22, 2026, as reported on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius. The market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears on that site before it closes, so last-minute corrections made before that cutoff still count. After that, no further revisions are considered. No recent news relevant to Madrid's July 22 temperature was provided. The one headline supplied is about dengue prevention, which has no bearing on this question. What would actually matter here is any forecast or weather outlook for Madrid around that date, such as a predicted heatwave, a cold front moving through, or an unusually hot pattern developing over the Iberian Peninsula. The market currently prices 39°C as most likely at 45%, but 40°C is close behind at 35%, and they cover a real spread. Late July in Madrid is reliably hot, so the question is not whether it will be warm but exactly how hot. A single day's peak temperature is sensitive to wind direction, cloud cover, and whether a heatwave is active that week. Small shifts in weather patterns can push the reading one degree in either direction, and one degree here is the difference between winning and losing.

The odds right now

• 39°C43%
• 40°C34%
• 41°C14%
• 38°C8%
• 37°C1%
• 42°C1%
• 43°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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