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Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 21?

Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 21?

Resolves Jul 21, 2026·$6.4k 24h vol·weather
$6.4k total volume

27°C

44%-3.0%

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Understand this market

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will Mexico City get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at the airport weather station, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The options are like buckets: one bucket for 26°C, one for 27°C, one for 28°C, and so on. Whichever bucket the peak temperature falls into wins. The market currently puts 27°C as the most likely outcome, at 44%.

OutcomeYesNo
27°C
26°C
28°C
25°C
29°C
24°C
30°C or higher
23°C
20°C or below
22°C

Order Book

27°C

PriceSharesTotal
52.0¢86$45
51.0¢50$26
50.0¢7$4
49.0¢73$36
48.0¢10$5
47.0¢1.3k$617
46.0¢1.0k$464
45.0¢208$94
45.0¢last trade
2.0¢ spread
43.0¢131$57
42.0¢1.3k$559
41.0¢590$242
40.0¢15$6
33.0¢14$5
30.0¢30$9
28.0¢80$22
27.0¢584$158
$1.1k bids$1.3k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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27°C

44%