Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will Mexico City get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at the airport weather station, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The options are like buckets: one bucket for 26°C, one for 27°C, one for 28°C, and so on. Whichever bucket the peak temperature falls into wins. The market currently puts 27°C as the most likely outcome, at 44%. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature logged at Benito Juárez International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree, so a reading of 27.6°C would count as 28°C. Settlement happens after the first data point for July 22 appears on that page, giving a brief window to catch any corrections to July 21 readings. After that cutoff, no revisions count. None of the recent news provided relates to Mexico City's weather or any meteorological event that would affect this market. To track this question, the useful things to watch closer to the date would be seasonal weather forecasts for central Mexico in late July, and any unusual heat or rain patterns in the region. July is deep in Mexico City's rainy season, which makes daily highs genuinely hard to pin down. Afternoon storms can cap temperatures that would otherwise climb higher, and cloud cover varies a lot day to day. The three main options, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, are all close together, so a single cloudy afternoon or a dry sunny day can shift the result entirely. The market is spread across a fairly narrow range, meaning small real-world changes have a big effect on which bucket wins.

The odds right now

• 27°C52%
• 28°C24%
• 26°C21%
• 25°C6%
• 29°C1%
• 24°C1%
• 30°C or higher1%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 21°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.