Bitcoin above ___ on July 27?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple price question: will Bitcoin be above a specific dollar level at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 27, 2026? There are three separate versions, one for each price level: $58,000, $60,000, and $62,000. A Yes result means Bitcoin's price crossed above that threshold at that exact moment. A No means it was at or below it. The higher the threshold, the harder it is to reach, which is why the odds step down slightly as the number goes up. Settlement is decided by one specific data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on July 27, 2026. That single minute's closing price is all that matters, not the daily average, not other exchanges, not other trading pairs. If Bitcoin is trading above the target price at that exact moment on Binance, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: prices on other platforms like Coinbase or Kraken are irrelevant here, even if they differ. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be major shifts in Bitcoin adoption, regulatory decisions in large markets, macroeconomic changes affecting risk assets broadly, or significant events inside the crypto industry itself, since any of these can move Bitcoin's price substantially over a multi-month period. The main honest challenge here is that July 27, 2026 is more than a year away, and Bitcoin is one of the most volatile assets in the world. The market currently prices the $58,000 threshold at 99%, which reflects where Bitcoin already trades today, so the core question at that level is really just whether something dramatic and negative happens. For $62,000, the odds are a little lower, reflecting the added distance to travel. Over 12-plus months, a lot can change in either direction.

The odds right now

• 56,00099%
• 58,00099%
• 60,00097%
• 62,00093%
• 64,00082%
• 66,00056%
• 68,00028%
• 70,00012%
• 72,0004%
• 74,0002%
• 76,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 27, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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