Bitcoin price on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will Bitcoin's price be at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 24, 2026? There is no single Yes or No here. Instead, you pick a price range, and the one whose bracket contains the actual price at that moment wins. The three ranges on offer are roughly $62,000 to $68,000, carved into $2,000 slices. The market currently places the most weight on Bitcoin landing between $64,000 and $66,000 at that specific moment. Settlement is decided by one very specific number: the closing price of the one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT chart at noon Eastern Time on July 24, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or anywhere else are irrelevant. If the price lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, it counts toward the higher bracket. If Binance data is unavailable for any reason, the criteria say the market resolves to No. None of the provided headlines are directly relevant to Bitcoin's price on this date. The BitMEX shutdown story is crypto-adjacent but BitMEX is a separate exchange and its closure does not directly determine Bitcoin's price. No meaningful Bitcoin-specific news was provided to point to. The kind of news that would genuinely matter here includes major regulatory changes, large institutional moves, or sudden macroeconomic shocks that could push Bitcoin sharply in either direction. Bitcoin's price is genuinely difficult to pin to a $2,000 window at a single moment a year out. Even one day before, prices can swing thousands of dollars in hours. The market currently leans toward $64,000 to $66,000 at 57%, but that still leaves 43% probability spread across other outcomes. Macro conditions, regulatory news, broader market sentiment, and simple volatility all influence where Bitcoin sits at any given noon. A single large trade or news event near the deadline could shift the price between brackets.

The odds right now

• 64,000-66,00063%
• 62,000-64,00022%
• 66,000-68,00014%
• 60,000-62,0002%
• 68,000-70,0001%
• 58,000-60,0000%
• 54,000-56,0000%
• 56,000-58,0000%
• >72,0000%
• <54,0000%
• 70,000-72,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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