Bitcoin above ___ on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 25, 2026. There are three separate price levels being tracked: $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000. A 'Yes' for the $60,000 market, for example, simply means Bitcoin is trading above $60,000 at that one specific moment in time, not on average across the day, and not at any other exchange. Settlement is decided by one single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 ET one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on July 25, 2026. That means the price recorded at the end of the one-minute window that starts at noon. Only Binance is used, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other source. If Bitcoin is even one cent below the threshold at that exact moment, the market resolves No, regardless of where it traded the rest of the day. No recent news directly about these specific price levels or July 2026 Bitcoin price targets was provided. The headlines mention a large Bitcoin ETF potentially selling 100,000 BTC and a major AI data center deal, which could influence broader crypto sentiment, but their direct relevance to where Bitcoin sits on July 25 is unclear. News to watch for would include major regulatory changes, large institutional moves, or significant macroeconomic shifts. Bitcoin is currently priced well above these thresholds, which is why the market assigns very high odds, 96 to 99 percent, to each level. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected and significant drives Bitcoin sharply lower before July 25, 2026. That is a real but historically uncommon scenario over a roughly one-year horizon at these levels. The single-moment, single-exchange resolution rule also adds a small technical risk: a brief price spike or data glitch at exactly noon could matter.

The odds right now

• 54,00099%
• 58,00099%
• 56,00099%
• 60,00098%
• 62,00093%
• 64,00077%
• 66,00045%
• 68,00016%
• 70,0004%
• 72,0002%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.