Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 17 - July 24, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times Trump posts on Truth Social during one specific week, from noon on July 17 to noon on July 24, 2026. A "Yes" for the leading range means he posts between 120 and 139 times in that window. Other ranges cover lower or higher totals. In plain terms, it is a count of how active he is on his social media platform that week, with different brackets representing different activity levels. The final count is settled using an automated tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tallies his main-feed posts, reposts, and quote posts in that seven-day window. Replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed. Importantly, deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. The market closes at noon ET on July 24, 2026, and whichever post-count range matches the tracker's final number is the one that resolves as correct. The provided headlines show Trump was actively engaged in foreign policy and domestic budget talks around July 22: meeting Lebanon's president, commenting on US-Lebanon flights, and following the GOP's budget push. These are the kinds of busy, news-heavy days that tend to produce higher posting volume, but one active day does not tell us the full week's total with any certainty. Trump's posting habits can shift dramatically depending on the news cycle, his travel schedule, and whether major events demand his attention. A single big news day can add dozens of posts, while a quieter stretch pulls the count down. The market is spread across three ranges, with the 120-139 bracket holding the most weight at 41%, but significant shares sit in neighboring ranges, meaning participants genuinely disagree about where the week lands. Personal and unpredictable factors make this hard to pin down.

The odds right now

• 120-139+12.5 pts (1w)43%
• 100-11921%
• 140-159+2.0 pts (1w)17%
• 180-199+1.0 pts (1w)11%
• 160-179-1.5 pts (1w)9%
• 200+-4.5 pts (1w)9%
• 80-99-5.2 pts (1w)3%
• 60-79-7.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 17, 12:00 PM ET and July 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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