Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Helsinki on July 24, 2026? The reading comes from Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, which is the main official weather station for the city. The options are 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C, each representing a single whole-degree outcome. Think of it as guessing the peak of the thermometer for that one summer day, where 21°C is roughly a mild, pleasant afternoon and 22°C starts to feel genuinely warm. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 21.7°C would count as 21°C, not 22°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They all concern an Irish political meeting in Kyiv, which has no connection to Helsinki's weather. What would actually matter here is a regional weather forecast for southern Finland around July 24, such as whether a warm high-pressure system or a cooler Atlantic front is expected to move through the area in late July 2026. The market is priced with 21°C at roughly 51%, so it is the clear favourite, but 20°C at 34% is a real contender. Late July in Helsinki can swing noticeably depending on which air mass arrives. A single cloud cover shift or a wind direction change can easily move the peak by a degree. Weather prediction beyond a day or two is genuinely uncertain, and this market resolves more than a year away, so current odds reflect historical climate patterns rather than any actual forecast.

The odds right now

• 21°C52%
• 20°C33%
• 22°C11%
• 19°C6%
• 18°C2%
• 23°C2%
• 24°C or higher1%
• 17°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 14°C or below0%
• 15°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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