Highest temperature in Seoul on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The answer is not Yes or No but a specific temperature. Each option like 28°C or 29°C represents one possible peak temperature for that day. The market currently puts the most weight on 28°C, meaning that outcome has the highest collective probability right now, but 27°C and 29°C are both close behind. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded on July 23, 2026, at Incheon International Airport Station, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 28.7°C would count as 28°C. One important detail: the market cannot close until the first data point from July 24 appears on that page, and any corrections published before that moment still count. After that cutoff, no further revisions are considered. There is no specific recent news available that relates to this market. For a weather market this far in advance, the kind of development worth watching would be long-range seasonal forecasts for the Korean Peninsula in late July, or any notable climate pattern signals like an unusually strong monsoon season or heat dome forecasts for East Asia. Weather a year out is genuinely very hard to pin down. Even a few days before July 23, a forecast can shift several degrees. The three leading options (27°C, 28°C, 29°C) are each only a single degree apart, and Seoul's late-July weather can swing based on monsoon timing, cloud cover, or a brief heat surge. The market is fairly spread across those three outcomes, which honestly reflects how close they are. Small changes in atmospheric conditions can easily shift the peak reading from one bucket to the next.

The odds right now

• 28°C31%
• 27°C28%
• 29°C22%
• 26°C11%
• 30°C or higher7%
• 25°C3%
• 24°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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