July Inflation US - Annual: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: when the US government publishes its official inflation number for July 2026, will prices be 3.3%, 3.4%, or 3.5% higher than they were exactly one year earlier? The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, tracks what a typical basket of goods and services costs, things like groceries, rent, and gas. A higher number means everyday life got more expensive faster. The market currently leans toward 3.4%, but 3.3% and 3.5% are both considered real possibilities. This market settles on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern time, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its official CPI report for July 2026. Whatever single number that report shows, rounded to one decimal place, is the answer. One important detail: the BLS only reports to one decimal place, so 3.38% and 3.42% would both count as 3.4%. If the BLS delays the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report, or falls back on the most recent available monthly data. One headline from July 20, 2026 notes that economists are feeling cautious optimism that inflation will start falling after that date, which is directly relevant to where July's number might land. The other headlines cover unrelated corporate and market news and do not directly bear on US inflation. No specific data releases or policy announcements in the provided news give a clearer signal about where the July CPI reading will fall. The market is fairly spread across three close outcomes, which reflects genuine difficulty in predicting a number this precise. Inflation at this level is shaped by many forces at once: energy prices, housing costs, supply chains, trade policy, and consumer demand. A small swing in any one of these can shift the reading by a tenth of a percentage point, which here is the difference between winning and losing. The one-decimal rounding rule also matters: the true underlying number could be anywhere in a range and still round to the same answer.

The odds right now

• 3.4%45%
• 3.5%27%
• 3.3%25%
• 3.6%5%
• 3.2%4%
• ≤3.1%3%
• 3.7%1%
• 3.9%0%
• 4.0%0%
• ≥4.2%0%
• 3.8%0%
• 4.1%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 12, 2026

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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