Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks where Japan's underlying inflation rate will land for the full year 2026, using a specific measure that strips out two big sources of noise: fresh food prices (which jump around with weather and harvests) and energy prices (which swing with global oil markets). What's left is a cleaner signal of whether everyday prices for things like clothes, furniture, dining out, and services are rising steadily. A result in the 2.0-2.4% range, which the market currently favors at 63%, would mean moderate, sustained inflation. A result at or below 1.9% would suggest price pressures are cooling back toward Japan's long era of near-zero inflation. The market settles on one number: the official annual core-core CPI figure published by Japan's Statistics Bureau in their Consumer Price Index Annual Report for 2026, expected on January 22, 2027. That report gives the figure rounded to one decimal place, and whichever bracket that number falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: if for any reason the report is delayed past January 22, the market stays open until March 31, 2027. If the data still hasn't appeared by then, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket, which is 1.9% or below, regardless of what the actual inflation rate might be. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Japanese inflation or economic conditions. There are no headlines here about Bank of Japan policy, Japanese wage data, consumer spending, or price trends. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes Bank of Japan interest rate decisions, annual wage negotiation results from Japan's spring labor talks, and monthly CPI releases from the Statistics Bureau showing how 2026 is tracking. The main challenge is that this covers an entire calendar year, and a lot can shift between now and December 2026. Japan's core-core inflation has been running above 2% in recent years after decades of near-zero price growth, so the 2.0-2.4% bracket reflects that recent trend. But several forces could push it either way: whether Japanese workers win further wage increases (which feeds into service prices), whether the yen weakens or strengthens (affecting import costs), and how global economic conditions evolve. The market is not split evenly, so the main open question is whether something disrupts the current trend rather than which direction is more plausible.

The odds right now

• 2.0-2.4%+23.0 pts (1w)63%
• ≤1.9%-1.5 pts (1w)14%
• 2.5-2.9%-33.5 pts (1w)8%
• 4.0%++2.5 pts (1w)4%
• 3.0-3.4%-1.7 pts (1w)2%
• 3.5-3.9%-1.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves February 12, 2027

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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