Khamenei # posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei post on X (formerly Twitter) during one specific week in July 2026? The three possible ranges are fewer than 5 posts, between 5 and 9 posts, or between 10 and 14 posts. No political outcome is being judged here, just the raw number of posts from his official account during that seven-day window. The market settles based on the total post count shown by an automated tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com for the @khamenei_ir account between July 21 and July 28, 2026, at noon Eastern Time each day. Only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count. Replies do not count unless they appear on his main feed. One important detail: even deleted posts count, as long as the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. The tracker is the primary judge; X itself is a backup if the tracker fails. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is anything affecting Khamenei's account activity on X, such as geopolitical events that typically prompt more posts from his office, or any platform-level actions affecting his account's visibility or access. The honest challenge here is that one person's posting habits in a specific future week are genuinely hard to forecast. The market currently places a 64% probability on fewer than 5 posts, suggesting his account tends to be quiet. But a single major geopolitical event, a religious occasion, or a political statement could push the count higher quickly. Past posting patterns offer a guide, but any unusual week could shift the outcome completely.

The odds right now

• <564%
• 5-928%
• 10-147%
• 15-193%
• 20-243%
• 35-392%
• 50-542%
• 40-442%
• 25-291%
• 30-341%
• 60+0%
• 45-490%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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