Los Angeles Mayoral Election: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the next mayor of Los Angeles? Right now there are two candidates listed. A 'Yes' on Karen Bass means she wins the mayor's office; a 'Yes' on Nithya Raman means Raman wins it instead. Bass is the current mayor of LA, so this is really asking whether she keeps her job or loses it to her challenger. The market settles based on who wins the election, which has two possible stages. First, a general election on June 2, 2026. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote that day, that person wins and the market closes. If nobody clears 50%, the top two candidates go to a runoff on November 3, 2026, and whoever wins that runoff wins the market. The official source is credible news reporting, with the City of Los Angeles as the backup if results are disputed. None of the news headlines provided are related to this race. There is no recent reporting here about the Los Angeles mayoral election, the candidates, or local LA politics. To follow this market, the kinds of updates worth watching would be new polls, major endorsements, fundraising reports, or any significant local event that shifts how LA voters feel about the candidates. The market currently prices Bass at 63% and Raman at 38%, so it leans toward Bass but is far from settled. Real uncertainty exists here. Bass has faced criticism over her handling of LA's homelessness crisis and the January 2025 wildfires. Raman is a sitting city council member with an energetic base. Turnout patterns, late-breaking local issues, and how many other candidates split the first-round vote could all shift the outcome significantly before June 2026.

The odds right now

• Karen Bass-2.5 pts (1w)63%
• Nithya Raman+3.1 pts (1w)38%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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