# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how many separate days in July 2026 will ChatGPT go down, at least partially, for users? It is not one yes/no question but a count, with the options being 3 days, 4 days, or 5 or more days. An outage day means a day where OpenAI officially confirmed ChatGPT had a meaningful service disruption, not just a slow response. The market currently leans heavily toward 5 or more such days happening across the month. The count comes from OpenAI's own status page at status.openai.com. Only incidents that specifically list ChatGPT as affected, and are classified as a 'Partial or Full Outage' at the time they are officially marked resolved, get counted. An incident that affects only the API or Sora but not ChatGPT does not count. The final count is taken at noon ET on August 1, 2026, unless any incident from July is still ongoing, in which case the market stays open a little longer, up to seven extra days. No recent news relevant to ChatGPT's reliability or outage history was provided. The one headline in the feed is about a U.S./Iran conflict and has no clear connection to this question. To watch this market meaningfully, you would want to follow OpenAI's status page directly for any July outage reports as they happen. The biggest challenge here is that outage frequency is genuinely hard to forecast. ChatGPT has experienced frequent disruptions historically, which is why the market prices '5 or more days' at 74%. But each month is different: infrastructure changes, unexpected traffic spikes, or stability improvements can all shift the pattern. There is also a counting subtlety: an incident that spans midnight could count as two days or one, depending on timing. The main real uncertainty is simply whether July behaves like a typical month or an unusually stable one.

The odds right now

• 5++65.5 pts (1w)88%
• 4-3.5 pts (1w)11%
• 3-23.3 pts (1w)1%
• <3-43.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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