Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Australia's central bank will change its main interest rate at its August 2026 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia sets a "cash rate" that influences borrowing costs across the whole economy, from mortgages to business loans. A "Yes" to no change means the RBA leaves that rate exactly where it is. A "Yes" to a 25 bps increase means the bank raises the rate by 0.25 percentage points, making borrowing slightly more expensive for Australians. The market settles based on the official RBA announcement after its August 10-11, 2026 board meeting. Whatever rate decision the RBA publishes in its statement that day decides the outcome. One important edge case: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed so long that no decision comes before the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as "No Change," even if no actual decision was made. Emergency rate changes made outside this specific meeting are also ignored. None of the provided news headlines relate to the RBA or Australian interest rate policy. To follow this market meaningfully, the kinds of developments worth watching would be Australian inflation data, employment figures, or any public guidance from RBA officials about their thinking on rates in the months ahead. The market strongly favors no change, pricing it at around 86%, so the main uncertainty is not a balanced two-sided debate. It is more about whether something unexpected pushes the RBA to act. Between now and August 2026, a lot can shift: inflation could surprise upward, the Australian economy could weaken or strengthen, or global events could change the picture. Central banks also sometimes signal moves in advance, so RBA speeches and data releases in the coming months will matter most.

The odds right now

• No change-9.0 pts (1w)84%
• 25 bps increase+9.7 pts (1w)18%
• 50+ bps increase+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 25 bps decrease-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.3 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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