Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: What It Means & How It Resolves

What you need to know

This market is asking how many Russians will actually show up to vote in the September 2026 parliamentary election. Specifically, it asks what share of all eligible voters cast a ballot, and which range that share falls into. A higher bracket means more people voted; a lower bracket means fewer did. It is not asking who wins the election, only how crowded the polling stations are as a percentage of everyone who could have voted. The market settles based on the official turnout figure published by Russia's Central Election Commission after the September 2026 vote. The turnout is calculated as total votes cast divided by total eligible voters. If that number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, it rounds up to the higher bracket. If no official result is known by October 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to the lowest available bracket, which is the under-47% option, regardless of what may have actually happened. None of the recent news provided relates directly to the 2026 Russian parliamentary election or its expected turnout. The headlines cover Ukraine peace talks, a US-Iran conflict, and unrelated legislative situations in other countries. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes any announcements from Russian authorities about voting procedures, multi-day voting windows, or early signals about mobilization campaigns ahead of the election. Russian official turnout figures are genuinely hard to evaluate from the outside. Past Russian elections have seen reported turnout that independent observers and researchers questioned, so the number that resolves this market may itself be contested. Beyond that, the war in Ukraine, economic conditions, and domestic political mood could all shift participation in hard-to-forecast ways. The market is spread fairly evenly across several brackets, which reflects real disagreement rather than a clear consensus about what to expect.

The odds right now

53-56%+2.9 pts (1w)29%
50-53%+6.0 pts (1w)18%
<47%+10.6 pts (1w)14%
56-59%-3.5 pts (1w)13%
59-62%-12.8 pts (1w)9%
62%+-8.3 pts (1w)7%
47-50%-1.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

53-56%

29%+10.3%

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

53-56%29%
50-53%18%
<47%14%
56-59%13%
59-62%9%
62%+7%
47-50%7%

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