What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Kevin Warsh, who is expected to be the new Federal Reserve chair, will use certain specific words during his July 29, 2026 press conference. The Fed holds regular meetings and then the chair speaks publicly to explain their decisions. Here, three words or phrases are being tracked: 'Productivity', 'Inflation' said 20 or more times, and 'Balance Sheet'. A Yes on any of these means Warsh said that word or phrase the required number of times. A No means he did not. Each word or phrase resolves Yes if Warsh says it during his opening statement or the Q&A on July 29, 2026. The sources used to check will be official video and transcripts of that press conference. If the press conference does not happen at all by July 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a special bracket called 'No Qualifying Event' resolves Yes, and everything else resolves No. So a cancellation or postponement would wipe out all the Yes outcomes. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no headlines about Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or the July 2026 FOMC meeting. What would matter to watch for: any news about Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair, any statements he has made about inflation or monetary policy recently, or any signals about whether the July meeting will proceed as scheduled. The main uncertainty is that we simply cannot know which exact words someone will use in a speech that has not happened yet. Fed press conferences are partly scripted and partly spontaneous, since reporters ask unpredictable questions. 'Inflation' being said 20 or more times sounds like a lot, but Fed chairs often repeat key words many times across a long Q&A session. The market prices all three brackets above 80%, suggesting most participants expect these words to appear, but a cancellation or a very short session could change everything.

The odds right now

• Inflation 20+ times88%
• Balance Sheet82%
• Central Bank82%
• AI / Artificial Intelligence82%
• Productivity81%
• Good day74%
• Oil70%
• Independence66%
• Bet / Betting66%
• Shock65%
• Uncertainty65%
• Supply shock64%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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