Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any of three specific companies, C3.ai, Workhorse, or Lucid, will publicly announce a bankruptcy filing before the end of 2026. Each company is tracked separately, so each one has its own Yes or No outcome. A Yes means the company officially says it is going bankrupt or has gone bankrupt. A No means it reaches December 31, 2026 without making such an announcement, even if the company is struggling financially. Each company resolves Yes the moment it announces a bankruptcy filing of any kind, through any official channel, before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement itself is enough, even if the actual court filing has not happened yet. The announcement can come from the CEO, a lawyer, or another official company representative. A strong, consistent consensus from credible news reporting can also count. If no such announcement happens by the deadline, that company resolves No. None of the provided recent headlines relate to C3.ai, Workhorse, or Lucid, so there is no specific recent news to point to here. The kind of developments that would matter are things like: a company announcing major layoffs or asset sales, losing key financing, receiving a going-concern warning from auditors, or any official statement about restructuring or insolvency. All three companies are in financially pressured sectors, which is why the odds are notable, but financial pressure does not guarantee bankruptcy. Companies can raise new funding, find buyers, cut costs, or simply survive longer than expected. The deadline is December 31, 2026, which still leaves meaningful time for conditions to change in either direction. The market currently prices C3.ai and Workhorse near a coin-flip, reflecting genuine uncertainty, while Lucid is priced lower, suggesting participants see it as less likely but still possible.

The odds right now

• Workhorse+22.0 pts (1w)52%
• Beyond Meat+18.0 pts (1w)51%
• C3.ai-14.0 pts (1w)35%
• Lucid+7.0 pts (1w)31%
• Perplexity AI+2.5 pts (1w)15%
• Xerox-12.5 pts (1w)11%
• SoundHound AI+0.1 pts (1w)10%
• Rivian+1.0 pts (1w)10%
• JetBlue Airways-5.0 pts (1w)9%
• Carvana+1.8 pts (1w)8%
• MicroStrategy6%
• Lovable+2.7 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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