Which company has second best AI model end of July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which company will have the second-best AI chatbot in the world by the end of July 2026, as measured by one specific public leaderboard. The leaderboard, called Chatbot Arena, ranks AI models based on millions of real user votes: people chat with two anonymous models and pick the better one. So this is really asking: on July 31, 2026, will it be Anthropic (maker of Claude), Google (Gemini), or OpenAI (GPT) sitting in second place on that ranking? The market settles on July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Someone checks the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the 'Text Arena, Overall' tab with style control turned off, and reads the rank column. Whichever company owns the model sitting in second place wins. If two models tie on rank, the tiebreaker is their underlying score, then alphabetical order by company name. One edge case to know: if the leaderboard website is down that day, the market stays open until it comes back online. None of the provided news headlines are clearly relevant to this market. One headline mentions Anthropic staying strong and OpenAI releasing new models, which is loosely related to the AI competition, but the snippet is too cut off to draw any firm conclusions. No specific Chatbot Arena ranking updates or major model launches are described in the provided news. The market prices Anthropic at 95%, which means participants strongly expect Claude to hold second place, but a lot can change before July 31, 2026. AI companies are releasing new models at a fast pace, and a single strong launch from Google or OpenAI could shake up the rankings. The Chatbot Arena leaderboard also shifts continuously as new votes come in. The main genuine uncertainty here is whether something unexpected, like a major model release, disrupts the current order before the deadline.

The odds right now

• Anthropic+1.8 pts (1w)96%
• Google-1.1 pts (1w)2%
• OpenAI-1.4 pts (1w)1%
• Moonshot+0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Alibaba+0.6 pts (1w)1%
• xAI+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Meta-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Z.ai0%
• DeepSeek0%
• Mistral0%
• Meituan0%
• Microsoft0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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