Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific Chinese companies will be taken off a U.S. government blacklist before July 2027. The U.S. Department of Defense maintains a list of companies it considers connected to China's military. Being on this list can restrict how American investors and businesses deal with those companies. A Yes means the company gets officially removed from that list. A No means it stays on it. Each company resolves Yes only if the U.S. Department of Defense publishes an updated version of the Section 1260H list that no longer includes that company by June 30, 2027. The removal must appear in an official DoD document or announcement. A few important edge cases: if a company is just renamed or merged into another listed entity, that does not count as removal. Also, if penalties are suspended but the company stays on the list, that does not count either. Only a clean, official delisting qualifies. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover unrelated topics like Ukraine, Sri Lanka diplomacy, and tax appointments in India. To follow this market, the developments worth watching would be any official U.S. DoD announcements about updating the Section 1260H list, or U.S.-China trade negotiations that might create pressure to delist specific companies. All three companies sit near 50%, which reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear lean either way. Delistings from this list are rare and politically sensitive. The U.S.-China relationship, domestic U.S. politics, and lobbying by the companies themselves all influence whether any removal happens. The deadline is mid-2027, leaving time for conditions to change, but also time for things to stay exactly as they are. There is no reliable historical pattern to anchor expectations here.

The odds right now

• DJI+27.5 pts (1w)53%
• CXMT+34.5 pts (1w)47%
• YMTC-7.0 pts (1w)46%
• CATL+27.5 pts (1w)46%
• Baidu+3.0 pts (1w)46%
• Unitree-5.5 pts (1w)46%
• BYD-0.5 pts (1w)42%
• Tencent+19.0 pts (1w)34%
• Hesai+7.5 pts (1w)24%
• Alibaba-21.5 pts (1w)18%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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