Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Databricks, a large private AI and data company, will reach a specific dollar valuation before the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds: $170 billion, $180 billion, and $190 billion, each its own Yes or No question. A 'Yes' means Databricks hit that number at some point during the period. A 'No' means it never did. Think of it like asking whether a house's appraised value ever crossed a certain price, not whether it ends the year there. The market settles based on a valuation figure published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a service that tracks prices on private company shares. If the NPM price for Databricks reaches or exceeds the threshold on any single trading day before December 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Databricks goes public via an IPO before the deadline, the market also counts the public stock price multiplied by total shares. If Databricks gets acquired and stops being an independent company, only valuations before the deal closes count. The only news provided is about a climate migration agreement between Australia and Tuvalu, which has no connection to Databricks or its valuation. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be a new funding round, a public IPO announcement, major new contracts, or a significant shift in the AI industry that affects how investors value data and AI companies. The market prices $170B at 96%, $180B at 86%, and $190B at 82%, so participants consider all three thresholds fairly likely, but not certain. The main uncertainty is not a close coin-flip debate. It is whether something unexpected derails the trend: a broader tech market downturn, a slowdown in AI investment, a delayed or cancelled IPO, or a corporate transaction that closes before a high valuation is logged. The higher the threshold, the more things need to go right, which is why confidence steps down with each level.

The odds right now

• ↑$170B+12.8 pts (1w)94%
• ↑$180B+35.0 pts (1w)85%
• ↑$190B+42.5 pts (1w)81%
• ↑$200B+21.0 pts (1w)47%
• ↑$225B+4.0 pts (1w)23%
• ↑$250B-0.5 pts (1w)14%
• ↓$140B-35.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↑$300B-3.0 pts (1w)7%
• ↓$130B-15.0 pts (1w)6%
• ↓$135B-25.0 pts (1w)5%
• ↓$125B-7.5 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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