Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether OpenAI's estimated company value will reach a specific dollar threshold before the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds being tracked: $900 billion, $800 billion, and $1 trillion. A Yes means OpenAI's valuation crossed that line at some point during the period. A No means it never reached that level. Think of it like asking whether the price tag on a private company gets big enough, at any moment, before a deadline. The market settles based on a daily valuation number published by Nasdaq Private Market, a service that tracks prices on private company shares. If that number hits or exceeds the listed threshold even once before December 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if OpenAI goes public through an IPO before then, the market will also look at its actual stock price and share count to calculate valuation. If OpenAI gets acquired and stops being an independent company, only valuations reached before that deal closes will count. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline included is about India's space sector and has no connection to OpenAI's valuation. The kind of news that would matter here includes new funding rounds, major revenue announcements, an IPO filing, or significant changes in AI industry sentiment that could push private market prices up or down. OpenAI is still a private company, so its valuation is not set by a public stock market. It comes from trades on secondary markets, which are thinner and less frequent than public markets, making the number less stable and harder to track. The market currently prices the $900B threshold at 73% and the $1T threshold at 55%, reflecting real uncertainty even at the higher end. OpenAI's valuation also depends on future fundraising, revenue growth, competition, and regulation, all of which can shift quickly in the AI space.

The odds right now

• ↑$900B+1.0 pts (1w)73%
• ↓$800B+20.5 pts (1w)65%
• ↑$1.0T-3.0 pts (1w)54%
• ↓$750B+15.5 pts (1w)43%
• ↑$1.25T-2.5 pts (1w)36%
• ↓$700B+2.0 pts (1w)23%
• ↑$1.5T-4.0 pts (1w)20%
• ↓$600B+2.0 pts (1w)14%
• ↑$1.75T-8.0 pts (1w)13%
• ↑$2.0T-1.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↓$500B+2.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↑$2.5T-2.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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