Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US House of Representatives will formally vote to impeach President Trump before the end of 2026. Impeachment is essentially a formal accusation, not a removal: the House votes on specific charges, and if a simple majority approves, the president is considered impeached, even if the Senate never holds a trial. A Yes here means that vote happens. A No means it does not, regardless of anything else that occurs politically. This resolves Yes the moment the House passes at least one article of impeachment against Trump by a simple majority vote, any time between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Importantly, no Senate trial, no conviction, and no removal from office is required. If the House never takes that vote, it resolves No. The deadline is firm: nothing after December 31, 2026 counts. None of the recent headlines provided are directly relevant to this question. They cover trade negotiations, US-Iran tensions, and an unrelated legal case. If you want to watch for something that would actually matter here, look for news about House members formally introducing or advancing impeachment articles, or a major shift in which party controls the House. The market prices this at around 2%, so the overwhelming lean is No. The main reason is structural: Republicans currently control the House, and impeachment requires a majority vote there. A party rarely impeaches its own president. For Yes to happen, something dramatic would need to change, such as a massive political crisis, a shift in House control after elections, or a significant number of Republican members breaking ranks. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected and extraordinary occurs.

The odds right now

• Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?-1.3 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.