U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
July 31
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This market asks whether U.S. government personnel will physically take part in a raid, arrest, or military strike against a drug cartel on another country's soil before July 31, 2026. Yes means boots on the ground or a direct strike, with Americans actively doing the operation. No means the U.S. stayed in a supporting role only, such as sharing intelligence, providing equipment, or sending advisors who watch from the sidelines.
Order Book
July 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
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July 31
16%