Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Prediction market trading on whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) will be signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently a closely contested binary, with the 'Yes' outcome holding a modest lead over 'No'. The market resolves on whether the bill clears both chambers of Congress and receives a presidential signature by 31 December 2026, as tracked via Congress.gov. The narrow concentration around the leading outcome reflects genuine legislative uncertainty.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: 'Yes' (bill signed into law by 31 December 2026) and 'No' (bill fails, stalls, or is not signed in time). Volume is closely distributed between the two outcomes, with 'Yes' holding a slim lead. Resolution requires official enactment confirmed via Congress.gov's legislation tracker for H.R.3633 in the 119th Congress, with a hard deadline of 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Background

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is a significant piece of proposed U.S. federal legislation aimed at establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based tokens. The bill seeks to clarify jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a long-standing point of regulatory ambiguity in the crypto industry. Congressional interest in crypto-market legislation has grown considerably following years of industry lobbying, high-profile exchange collapses, and increasing political engagement from digital asset stakeholders. The 119th Congress has shown greater appetite for crypto-related legislation than its predecessors, though the legislative calendar and competing priorities continue to create uncertainty about the timeline for any major bill reaching enactment.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether the bill is enacted before the deadline. Committee progression through both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee represents an early gating step; delays at either stage compress the available floor time. The Senate's more demanding procedural requirements — including the possibility of filibuster and cloture votes — introduce additional passage risk even if the House advances the bill smoothly. Bicameral reconciliation, should the Senate produce a materially different version, could require a conference process that extends the timeline. The presidential signature is the final step; any veto or pocket-veto scenario would resolve the market 'No'. Broader legislative crowding — from budget, appropriations, or other major bills — could displace floor time. Industry coalition support and lobbying intensity may influence the pace of committee markup and floor scheduling, as can any regulatory or market events that shift political salience of the digital assets issue.

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