#1 Searched Passing on Google in the US 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which famous person's death will be searched the most on Google in the United States during 2026. Every December, Google publishes a 'Year in Search' list showing who Americans searched for most after they passed away. This market is a prediction of who will top that specific list. A 'Yes' for Chuck Norris, for example, means he passes away in 2026 and his death drives more Google searches than any other person who dies that year. The market settles based on whoever Google officially ranks number one in its 'Year in Search: Passings' list for the United States, published at trends.withgoogle.com. Google typically releases this list in late December after the year ends. The market can resolve as soon as that list appears. One important edge case: if Google does not publish the list at all by March 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', meaning none of the named people win. None of the provided recent headlines relate to the people named in this market or to notable deaths that would affect how it resolves. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is a high-profile death of a widely recognized public figure, since that event would drive a surge in Google searches and shift how this market is priced. By definition, this market depends entirely on who dies in 2026 and how much public attention that death receives, and neither of those things can be known in advance. The leading odds for Chuck Norris and Ali Khamenei reflect their age and public profile, not any confirmed news. A completely unexpected death of someone not listed here could easily win, which is why 'Other' is always a real possibility. The market is genuinely wide open for the full year.

The odds right now

• Chuck Norris36%
• Ali Khamenei25%
• Kyle Busch6%
• Robert Duvall6%
• Eric Dane6%
• Lindsey Graham6%
• Bonnie Tyler6%
• Jesse Jackson6%
• Ted Turner6%
• Bob Weir6%
• David Hockney6%
• Nicholas Brendon6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "Passings" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.