Fed Interest Rate Decision: Live Odds & Predictions
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the US benchmark interest rate roughly eight times a year, and each meeting is one of the most-traded events in prediction markets. Traders price the probability of a hold, a cut, or a hike well before the official announcement, so the odds here read as a live, money-backed forecast of what the Fed will do next.
Because the decision recurs every few weeks, this page follows the series across meetings: the current market when one is open, and the historical outcomes as each decision resolves. It is a running record of how the market saw each Fed meeting versus what the Fed actually did.
Open markets
- Fed Decision in October?95%No change
- Fed Decision in December?77%25 bps increase
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?78%Yes
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?73%2 (50 bps)
- Fed Decision in January?68%No change
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?96%0 (0 bps)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?70%4.25%
- Fed rate cut by...?50%July 2027 Meeting
- What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?72% ↑ 4.25%
Frequently asked
How does a Fed decision market resolve?
It resolves to whichever action the FOMC announces at the scheduled meeting: typically a rate hold, a cut, or a hike of a stated size. The official Fed statement is the resolution source.
What do the odds mean?
Each outcome's price is the market-implied probability of that action. A 'hold' trading at 80c means the market assigns roughly an 80% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged.
When is the next Fed decision?
The FOMC meets about every six weeks. When a meeting is open for trading, the current market appears below; between meetings, this page shows the most recent resolved decisions.