US Presidential Election: Live Odds & Predictions
The US presidential election is the highest-volume political event in prediction markets. Traders price the probability of each party and each candidate winning the White House, and those odds often move faster and more decisively than traditional polling as debates, primaries, and news land.
The election cycle recurs every four years, with primaries and nomination races in between. This hub follows the series across cycles: the live win-probability markets when they are open, and resolved outcomes as each race is called.
Open markets
Frequently asked
How do election markets resolve?
Each market resolves to the actual result, for example the party or candidate that wins the presidency, based on the certified outcome.
Are prediction-market odds better than polls?
They are different. Polls sample opinion; prediction markets aggregate what people will actually stake money on, and they update in real time. Both can be wrong, but markets price probability directly.