#1 song in the US this week? (July 31): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which song will be the single most-streamed track in the US on Spotify for the week that Spotify labels 'July 31.' A Yes on any listed song means that song finishes at number one on that specific Spotify weekly chart. Right now the market gives Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' a 54% chance, Morgan Wallen's 'Been By Now' a 32% chance, and Olivia Rodrigo's 'Stupid Song' a 4% chance, with the rest going to 'Other.' The market settles based on whichever song tops Spotify's official US weekly chart for the period labeled July 31, which covers streams from the preceding Friday through Thursday. Spotify publishes that chart on Fridays. If Spotify does not release the chart by August 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern time, the market automatically resolves as 'Other,' regardless of who was leading, so a delay on Spotify's end could produce a surprising outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. The stories cover topics like trade policy, a Katy Perry statement, and other unrelated events. The kind of news that would actually matter here would be a major new song release, a viral moment pushing a track up the charts, or any artist announcement that shifts streaming traffic significantly in the days before the July 31 measurement week. Music charts can shift fast, and a single viral moment, a surprise collab, or a song featured in a popular show or film can dramatically change streaming numbers within days. The measurement week runs Friday to Thursday, so events happening right up until the final Thursday still count. The market is not a coin toss: at 54%, 'Choosin' Texas' is clearly the frontrunner, so the main uncertainty is whether something unexpected bumps it, not whether the race is evenly matched.

The odds right now

• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley55%
• Been By Now - Morgan Wallen25%
• Janice STFU - Drake20%
• Earrings - Malcolm Todd19%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande17%
• the cure - Olivia Rodrigo16%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo16%
• Billie Jean - Michael Jackson4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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