#2 song in the US this week? (July 31): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which song will be the second most-streamed song in the United States on Spotify during a specific week. A Yes for Morgan Wallen's 'Been By Now' means that song lands in the number two spot, not number one and not lower. A Yes for Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' means that song takes the number two position instead. Only one song can win, and finishing first or third does not count. The market settles based on Spotify's official weekly chart for the period labeled July 31, which covers streams from the preceding Friday through Thursday. Spotify publishes this chart on Fridays. If Spotify releases the chart by August 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the song listed second on that chart wins. If Spotify does not publish the chart by that deadline for any reason, the market defaults to 'Other', which is worth noting as an edge case. None of the provided news headlines relate to music charts, streaming data, or any of the songs listed in this market. There is nothing from the recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching would be any major song release, viral moment, or chart update from Spotify in the days leading up to the July 31 chart week. Pop chart positions can shift quickly, and a single viral moment, playlist placement, or new release can shake up the rankings within days. The market currently prices Morgan Wallen around 55% and Ella Langley around 40%, so it reads as a close two-horse race with real uncertainty. Country music can have strong and unpredictable streaming surges. There is also always a small chance a song not currently listed here breaks through, which is why 'Other' and 'Earrings' hold a combined slice of the odds.

The odds right now

• Been By Now - Morgan Wallen55%
• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley38%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande6%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo3%
• the cure - Olivia Rodrigo3%
• Billie Jean - Michael Jackson3%
• Earrings - Malcolm Todd3%
• Janice STFU - Drake3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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