2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament? A 'Yes' on a player means they lift the trophy at Flushing Meadows in New York. A 'No' on a player means someone else wins. The market currently gives Jannik Sinner a 52% chance, Carlos Alcaraz 22%, and Alexander Zverev 7%, with the remaining roughly 19% spread across other players not listed here. The market settles on whoever is declared the official champion of the 2026 US Open men's singles, played August 23 through September 13, 2026. The source is the official US Open website or credible news reporting. One edge case worth knowing: if the tournament is cancelled or pushed past October 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other', not Yes or No for any player. If a listed player withdraws or is disqualified before winning, their individual market resolves 'No'. None of the news headlines provided relate to tennis or the 2026 US Open. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter to watch for include player injury updates, performance results from the hard-court season leading into the tournament, and any eligibility issues affecting top players. Even the heavy favorite can lose a Grand Slam. The US Open is played on hard courts, which suits Sinner and Alcaraz well, but a single injury, a bad draw, or a hot opponent in one match can end anyone's run. The tournament is still over a month away, so form can shift. Beyond the favorites, roughly 19% of market probability is spread across the rest of the field, which means upsets are genuinely priced in. Tennis is unpredictable enough that a 52% favorite still loses nearly half the time.

The odds right now

• Jannik Sinner+1.0 pts (1w)53%
• Carlos Alcaraz-1.0 pts (1w)23%
• Alexander Zverev-0.1 pts (1w)7%
• Novak Djokovic+0.1 pts (1w)4%
• Taylor Fritz+0.9 pts (1w)2%
• Ben Shelton+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Daniil Medvedev+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Andrey Rublev+0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Jakub Mensik+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Felix Auger Aliassime+0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Joao Fonseca-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Lorenzo Musetti+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 13, 2026

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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