2026 Midterms: House Turnout: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many total votes will be cast across all U.S. House of Representatives races in the 2026 midterm elections. Think of it like a national headcount: add up every vote cast for every House candidate in every congressional district across all 50 states, and which number range does that total fall into? The brackets shown (110-115 million, 115-120 million, 120-125 million, and likely others) are the possible answer buckets. A higher bracket winning means more Americans showed up to vote. After the November 3, 2026 elections, the official Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives will publish the final vote totals. Whatever the total comes out to, this market settles into whichever bracket that number fits. Only votes for actual voting House members from the 50 states count; votes in U.S. territories like Puerto Rico do not. If the elections somehow do not happen by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to a special 'Other' outcome instead of any vote-count bracket. None of the recent news provided is directly relevant to House turnout projections. The headline about Democrats targeting an Ohio House seat due to abuse allegations against Rep. Max Miller is worth noting loosely, since competitive individual races can drive local turnout. But no data, polls, or early-voting reports about overall 2026 turnout levels were included. The key things to watch for would be national enthusiasm surveys, special election results, and voter registration trends as November approaches. Predicting total voter turnout more than a year out is genuinely difficult. Midterm turnout swings significantly based on the political climate closer to election day: how energized each party's base is, how many competitive races there are, and whether any major national events shift public attention. The 2022 midterms drew about 113 million votes; 2018 drew roughly 118 million, a modern midterm record. The market is currently spread fairly evenly across the 110-125 million range, reflecting real uncertainty about whether 2026 will feel more like a high-energy or quieter cycle.

The odds right now

• 120-125m+9.5 pts (1w)29%
• 115-120m+9.0 pts (1w)25%
• 110-115m+8.0 pts (1w)18%
• 125-130m8%
• 130m+-4.2 pts (1w)6%
• <85m-2.4 pts (1w)6%
• 105-110m-10.2 pts (1w)5%
• 100-105m+0.3 pts (1w)4%
• 95-100m+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• 85-90m+0.7 pts (1w)1%
• 90-95m-2.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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