2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific French politicians will officially make it onto the ballot for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. A 'Yes' means that person is confirmed as an official candidate; a 'No' means they are not on the ballot, whether because they chose not to run, failed to qualify, or something else prevented their candidacy. Each politician listed here has their own separate Yes/No question. The French Constitutional Council, the official body that validates presidential candidates, publishes a final list of approved candidates before each election. This market settles 'Yes' if the named person appears on that list. The key qualifying requirement in France is collecting 500 signatures from elected officials nationwide, which can trip up even well-known politicians. If the election does not happen and no list is published by June 30, 2027, all three resolve 'No'. None of the recent headlines provided relate to the 2027 French presidential election or these three candidates. The kind of news that would matter here includes any candidate officially declaring their run, news about Marine Le Pen's ongoing legal situation affecting her eligibility, or shifts in French party politics that could clear or block someone's path to the ballot. The biggest wildcard is Marine Le Pen's legal situation: she faces a conviction that could include a ban from running for office, which is why her odds sit slightly lower than the others despite her prominence. For Mélenchon and Philippe, the main uncertainty is the 500-signature threshold and whether party politics align in their favor. The election is still roughly a year away, leaving plenty of time for health issues, political shifts, or unexpected events to change the picture.

The odds right now

• Jean-Luc Mélenchon-0.6 pts (1w)97%
• Marine Le Pen+1.0 pts (1w)90%
• Édouard Philippe+0.5 pts (1w)84%
• Nathalie Arthaud+0.5 pts (1w)83%
• Fabien Roussel-9.0 pts (1w)79%
• Éric Zemmour+0.5 pts (1w)73%
• Bruno Retailleau-0.5 pts (1w)73%
• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan-0.5 pts (1w)63%
• Raphaël Glucksmann+7.0 pts (1w)62%
• David Lisnard+12.5 pts (1w)61%
• Dominique de Villepin-2.5 pts (1w)37%
• Gabriel Attal+1.5 pts (1w)33%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves April 17, 2027

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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