AI bubble burst by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the AI industry will visibly collapse before the end of 2026, using a specific checklist of crash signals rather than anyone's opinion. A Yes means the AI boom ends badly: major stock prices are cut in half, or top AI companies like OpenAI or Anthropic go bankrupt or get acquired, or the cost of renting AI computing power craters to nearly nothing. A No means the AI industry stays broadly intact through December 31, 2026, even if it slows down or has a rough patch. To resolve Yes, at least three items from a specific list must all happen within the same 90-day window before December 31, 2026. The list includes things like NVIDIA's stock falling 50% from its peak, OpenAI declaring bankruptcy, or the H100 chip rental price dropping to one dollar or less for five days in a row. The key point: no single bad event is enough. Three separate triggers must cluster together within 90 days. Feelings or news reports about a downturn do not count. Only the measurable checklist items do. No specific recent news was provided for this market. In general, the kinds of developments worth watching would be sharp drops in AI-related stock prices, any financial trouble at major AI companies, or a sudden fall in demand for AI computing hardware. Those are the signals that would move this market meaningfully. The market prices this at around 18%, meaning participants see it as unlikely but not impossible. The main tension is that bubbles are hard to time: the AI sector could cool gradually without hitting these very specific thresholds, or a fast shock could trip multiple triggers at once. The bar is deliberately high, requiring three serious events in a tight 90-day window, which makes Yes harder to achieve even in a downturn. The biggest unknown is simply whether anything that dramatic happens before the deadline.

The odds right now

• December 31, 2026-1.7 pts (1w)17%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.