ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will win the 2026 National Bank Open men's tennis tournament in Montreal? It is one of the biggest events on the ATP Tour, a step below the Grand Slams in prestige. A 'Yes' on a specific player means you think that person lifts the trophy at the end of the tournament. The current odds show Alexander Zverev as the favorite at 30%, with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 12% and Felix Auger-Aliassime at 11%, and the remaining probability spread across other players. The market settles on whichever player is officially declared the tournament winner by the ATP Tour, with the event scheduled to run August 2 through August 13, 2026. One edge case worth knowing: if the tournament is postponed past August 27, 2026, or is canceled outright, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than to any named player. There is also an unusual tiebreaker rule: if two players are somehow both declared winners, the market goes to whichever of their names comes first alphabetically. None of the news provided relates to this tennis tournament. The headlines from August 2, 2026 cover unrelated topics like history, international events, and politics. There is no match result, player withdrawal, or tournament update in the available information. The thing to watch for would be any injury news about top players, weather disruptions at the Montreal venue, or early-round upset results as the draw progresses. Tennis tournaments are genuinely hard to predict because so much can change across a 12-day event. A top player can lose to a lower-ranked opponent on any given day, and injuries can end a run without warning. The field beyond the three named players still holds roughly 47% of the market probability, meaning the crowd sees a real chance someone else entirely wins. The tournament has only just begun as of August 2, so almost nothing has been decided yet, which makes this one of the widest-open moments to assess.

The odds right now

• Alexander Zverev28%
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina12%
• Felix Auger-Aliassime11%
• Ben Shelton9%
• Taylor Fritz8%
• Casper Ruud6%
• Daniil Medvedev5%
• Flavio Cobolli4%
• Andrey Rublev4%
• Jack Draper3%
• Jakub Mensik3%
• Brandon Nakashima3%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 National Bank Open (ATP Masters 1000, Montreal), currently scheduled for August 2 – August 13, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after August 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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