Bank of Korea decision in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether South Korea's central bank will change its main interest rate at its August 2026 meeting. The Bank of Korea sets a base rate that influences borrowing costs across the whole economy: mortgages, business loans, savings accounts. A 'No Change' outcome means the bank leaves the rate exactly where it is. A '25 bps hike' means the rate goes up by 0.25 percentage points, making borrowing more expensive. A '25 bps cut' means it goes down by 0.25 percentage points, making borrowing cheaper. The market settles based on the official announcement from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting on August 27, 2026. Whatever rate decision they announce that day determines the outcome. If the bank raises, holds, or cuts, the market resolves to the matching option. One thing worth knowing: if the bank moves by an unusual amount, like 10 basis points, the rules round it to the nearest standard option, so a very small move would still count as a 25 bps change. None of the recent news provided relates to the Bank of Korea, South Korean monetary policy, or Korean economic conditions. No relevant headlines are available to summarize here. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be Korean inflation data, GDP growth figures, currency movements, or public statements from Bank of Korea officials about their rate outlook. The market currently prices a 76% chance of no change, with a 24% chance of a hike, so this is not a coin toss. The main uncertainty is whether economic conditions between now and August 27 shift enough to move the bank. Central banks can change course if inflation surprises to the upside, if the Korean won weakens sharply, or if global economic conditions shift. The meeting is still months away, which leaves meaningful time for new data to change the picture.

The odds right now

• No Change+1.0 pts (1w)76%
• 25 bps hike-2.0 pts (1w)24%
• 25 bps cut+1.8 pts (1w)3%
• 50+ bps hike+0.9 pts (1w)2%
• 50+ bps cut0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.