Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of August 8: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which song will sit at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 for the chart dated August 8, 2026. Billboard's Hot 100 ranks songs by combining streaming numbers, radio airplay, and sales data. A Yes for 'Choosin' Texas' by Ella Langley means that song holds the top spot on that specific chart. The other named songs are alternative outcomes, and if none of them hit number one, the market resolves to 'Other'. The market settles based on whichever song Billboard officially lists as number one on its Hot 100 chart labeled 'Week of August 8, 2026,' which is expected to be published in early August 2026. Billboard is the sole decision-maker here. One small edge case worth knowing: if two songs somehow tie for first place, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by song title, not any musical or popularity measure. If Billboard never publishes that chart within 14 days of the expected date, the market resolves to 'Other.' None of the news provided relates to this market. There are no recent headlines about Ella Langley, Stella Lefty, Taylor Swift, or the Billboard Hot 100 in the supplied news. The kinds of developments worth watching would be new song releases that could challenge the current leader, streaming milestone announcements, or radio airplay data from services like Luminate, which feeds Billboard's chart calculations. The market is heavily one-sided right now, with 'Choosin' Texas' priced at 85%. The main uncertainty is not really a two-sided debate but rather whether something unexpected disrupts the current leader before the chart week closes. A surprise viral hit, a major artist dropping a new song, or a sudden surge in radio play for a competitor could shift things. Music charts can move fast, and several weeks remain before the data window closes, leaving room for the unexpected.

The odds right now

• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley85%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande7%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo7%
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift6%
• Boston - Stella Lefty5%
• Be Her - Ella Langley2%
• Janice STFU - Drake2%
• Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.