Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 1: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which song will sit at number 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week labeled August 1, 2026. A Yes on Taylor Swift's 'I Knew It, I Knew You' means that song lands in the second spot on that specific chart. A Yes on Olivia Rodrigo's 'Drop Dead' means her song takes that slot instead. Only one can win, and the market is asking you to weigh in before the chart drops. This settles based on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart published and labeled 'Week of August 1, 2026,' which Billboard typically releases on a Tuesday. Whatever song Billboard officially lists at number 2 that week wins. If two songs somehow tie at that position, alphabetical order by song title breaks the tie. If Billboard never publishes this chart within 14 days of when it was expected, the market resolves to a third option called 'Other' instead of either named song. None of the provided news headlines relate to Billboard charts, music performance data, or either of these two songs. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be new streaming numbers, radio airplay data, or major song releases that could shake up the chart around late July 2026. The market prices this heavily toward Taylor Swift at 92%, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that. Music charts can shift quickly: a viral moment, a competing release from a major artist, or a sudden surge in streams for another song could push 'I Knew It, I Knew You' down or out of contention entirely. The chart reflects an entire week of data, and a lot can move in popular music in a short time.

The odds right now

• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift+49.0 pts (1w)98%
• Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo-19.3 pts (1w)1%
• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley-19.6 pts (1w)0%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande-6.9 pts (1w)0%
• Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo-5.3 pts (1w)0%
• Be Her - Ella Langley-19.4 pts (1w)0%
• The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo-4.3 pts (1w)0%
• Janice STFU - Drake-20.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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