Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 15: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which song will sit at number 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 for the chart dated August 15, 2026. The Hot 100 ranks the most popular songs in the US each week, combining streaming, radio airplay, and sales data. Number 2 specifically means the second most popular song that week, not the top song. Right now the market sees three country and pop songs as the most likely candidates, with odds sitting close together. The market settles based on whichever song Billboard officially lists at position number 2 on their Hot 100 chart titled 'Week of August 15, 2026.' That chart is published on a Tuesday, so it should appear around August 12, 2026. One edge case worth knowing: if two songs somehow tie at that position, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by song title, not any music metric. If Billboard does not publish the chart within 14 days of the expected date, the market resolves as 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to music charts, Billboard rankings, or any of the songs listed in this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would actually matter is a big new song release, a viral moment for one of these artists, or a major shift in streaming or radio play in the weeks leading up to mid-August. The three listed songs are priced almost identically, around 40 to 43%, which tells you the market genuinely has no strong favorite right now. Chart positions can shift quickly based on new releases, playlist changes, radio rotation, or a song going viral on social media. We are also still months away from the target date, so songs that do not even exist yet could enter the picture. That much time and that much closeness between options makes this genuinely difficult to call.

The odds right now

• Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley41%
• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande41%
• Petal - Ariana Grande36%
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift28%
• Been By Now - Morgan Wallen28%
• Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo24%
• Boston - Stella Lefty18%
• Be Her - Ella Langley12%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled "Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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