Bitcoin above ___ on July 26?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin will be trading above a specific price level at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 26, 2026. There are three separate price versions: $60,000, $62,000, and $64,000. A Yes result means Bitcoin crossed that threshold by that moment. A No means it did not. Think of it like a snapshot: only one single moment in time matters, not the average price that day or where it closes at night. Settlement is decided by one specific data point: the closing price of the 1-minute price candle on Binance for BTC/USDT at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 26, 2026. If that single closing number is higher than the target price, it resolves Yes. If it is equal to or lower, it resolves No. Importantly, only Binance is used as the source, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. A price difference of even one cent below the threshold means No. The recent news provided does not directly address Bitcoin's price direction. A FATF report flagging criminal misuse of DeFi platforms was published, which can occasionally affect broader crypto sentiment, but there is no specific news here about Bitcoin's price level or major market-moving events to point to. The type of development that would matter most is any major shift in Bitcoin demand, regulation, or macroeconomic conditions between now and July 26. The market prices $60,000 at 98% and $64,000 at 83%, so the crowd is confident Bitcoin will stay well above these levels, but one year is a long time in crypto. Bitcoin has historically moved 30% to 50% in either direction within months. A major regulatory shock, exchange failure, or broader financial crisis could change things quickly. The single-moment resolution rule also adds a small layer of unpredictability: even on a healthy day, a brief dip at exactly noon could flip the outcome.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,00099%
• 58,00099%
• 60,00099%
• 62,00097%
• 64,00088%
• 66,00056%
• 68,00021%
• 70,0005%
• 72,0002%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.