Bitcoin above ___ on July 28?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 28, 2026. There are three separate versions: one asking if Bitcoin beats $58,000, one for $60,000, and one for $62,000. A Yes means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that precise moment. A No means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot: only one second of one day matters, not the average or the trend. Settlement depends on one single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon ET one-minute trading candle for Bitcoin against the US dollar on Binance, on July 28, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or anywhere else are irrelevant even if they differ. If Bitcoin is at exactly the threshold price, that counts as No, not Yes. The market resolves the moment that candle closes, around 12:01 ET on that day. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency markets, so there is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or significant macroeconomic news like central bank decisions that historically move crypto prices. Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and over a year-long horizon almost anything can happen. The market currently prices the $58,000 threshold at 99%, reflecting that Bitcoin already trades well above that level as of mid-2026, making it a fairly lopsided question. The main uncertainty is not a balanced coin-toss: it is simply whether an unexpected crash, regulatory shock, or black-swan event drops Bitcoin by a large amount before that specific noon moment on July 28.

The odds right now

• 56,00099%
• 58,00098%
• 60,00097%
• 62,00091%
• 64,00076%
• 66,00049%
• 68,00022%
• 70,0008%
• 72,0003%
• 74,0001%
• 76,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.